Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Multi-Day Severe Weather Threat Extended into North Great Lakes

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined another area in the northern Great Lakes to make 3 days worth of severe weather threats for the extreme northern US.

Days 5 and 6 were slightly retracted due to models showing increased capping, which, in strong amounts, can prevent storms from forming. It looks like the stability will be most prevalent in the early morning hours of each day, as the nighttime has cooled and stabilized the air. However, there will still be over 5000 jkg of instability waiting in eastern North Dakota by afternoon, so storms should be able to break that cap.
The northern Great Lakes situation could get interesting, because there will be a still large but weaker area of 3000 j/kg of instability for storms. The cap will still be forcefully returning during the night, so this particular threat area may be at risk for being too capped.


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

SPC says that the worst of this could occur N of the border. I believe though that these risk areas are well warranted. ALso NAO is down.