I'm really sorry I haven't been posting anything as of recently. I am working as hard as I can on the winter forecast update (which comes out on Friday at noon CDT), and that work is definitely paying off.
Now, I did say that I was going to try and include some analogues in it, but I am calling that off. While analogues can be good resources, I think I want to use current conditions that can be at least somewhat predictable, whereas analogues can quickly differ from current conditions with just one huge cold blast or big storm system.
Andrew
Now, I did say that I was going to try and include some analogues in it, but I am calling that off. While analogues can be good resources, I think I want to use current conditions that can be at least somewhat predictable, whereas analogues can quickly differ from current conditions with just one huge cold blast or big storm system.
Andrew
8 comments:
CFS winter compares favorably to the winter of 76-77. You might not be old enough to remember, but it was a bear.
Spoiler alert, I am using that as an analogue for this winter as it fell after a double dip La Nina.
Can't wait for your forecast! Hopefully more snow for Michigan!
Still wondering what exactly all of this means for Colorado.
Will this particular El Niño event alleviate the terrible aftermath of those detestable and despicable La Ninas that came back to back, or is this state doomed to disappear in cloud of ashes due to getting shafted out of moisture for too many years due to our cursed central proximity in the US.
Certainly a crucial question to be asked at this point...I don't think this state could handle any more drought years.
Anonymous: While everything will be available tomorrow, I can tell you that my analogues are showing me a dry East Coast and a fairly neutral western US as for precip.
Sorry, a dry West Coast, especially in the Northwest.
No spoiler on Midwest.....even more curious now.
Still thinking a great year for all!!!!!!!!!!
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