Sunday, June 10, 2012

Severe Weather Hits Plains This Afternoon

There is a slight risk of severe weather across the northern Plains and upper Midwest regions into western portions of the Midwest and central Plains.

Severe weather will ignite across the areas mentioned above as a cold front hits strong instability in the area. 0z model guidance indicates that storms will be quickly advancing in a north-northeast fashion, not really aligned in a squall-line, but resembling something of the sort. If these storms were to stay as individual cells, the risk of tornadoes would be present across northern portions of the risk area, where the threat is greatest.
At the time of typing, instability was already into the 1000-2000 j/kg levels, with a capping inversion of 0-250 j/kg of stability present. There are some messy clouds in Minnesota, but Wisconsin is currently in the midst of a nice, clear morning, which should help to heat and destabilize the atmosphere further than in Minnesota. 925mb and 850mb analyses indicates strong lower level winds, which will help to push thunderstorms along when they form this afternoon. As of now, a strong area of surface vorticity is moving east into Minnesota, where the vorticity values will strengthen. These strengthening vorticity values will enhance the potential for rotation in the Minnesota region for the afternoon, and eventually reaching Wisconsin in the evening hours.



Anonymous said...

Based on the Euro/ Gfs and my personal knowledge; the CONUS will do welll with svr this month.

Wally Gullang said...

angovicAndrew you mention the severe weather but what about to lack of rain in some places. Here in Nothern Illinois we can't buy a drop of rain. Driving around the crops look good right now but what about in say two weeks.