Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Derecho Possible in Mid Atlantic Today

There has been a lot of interest over the potential for a derecho in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic today, and after looking at the models, I believe that it is a possibility. However, the models have come in weak this morning. They still express a derecho-looking bowing segment to charge into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic, but it looks weaker on this morning's runs than last night's models.
To the left, we see Northern Indiana's NWS office's WRF model. At roughly 1:00 PM CDT, this WRF is forecasting a bowing segment to hit the states of Kentucky and West Virginia. The 0z NAM, which had been portraying at least a moderate derecho, now appears to be seeing more of a cluster of showers and storms that could end up resembling that of a bowing segment. The general model consensus seems to be on the dim side as for derecho potential. But is that true after all?
The latest severe weather outlook for wind shows a 30% area for damaging winds in the areas being watched for the possible derecho. Considering the above image was for 1:00 PM CDT and the storms would likely strengthen as time goes on, personally, I do find it somewhat difficult to agree with the models. With the assistance of this Ring of Fire around a high pressure system, the upper winds aloft would seem to support more of a derecho solution panning out, especially with the lower level jet stream going through that area.

All in all, I personally see a derecho still on the table, but the models seem to be on the iffy side with it. We will see what happens this afternoon.


No comments: