Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Invest 99 Becomes More Organized

Invest 99 continues to strengthen and become more organized as it makes its way westward towards the Caribbean.

Latest analysis of Invest 99 shows several clusters of strong thunderstorms, with the biggest cluster containing the center of circulation and main component of the invest. The center of Invest 99 does not have a defined circulation, and at this time appears only as an area with a cluster of strong thunderstorms.
Invest 99 is in a difficult spot, warding off expanses of dry air to the north and west of itself. This dry air to the west may pose development problems, but the GFS ensembles say otherwise.

The 12z run of the GFS Ensembles, or GEFS, shows 1008 millibar lines as well as 1048 millibar lines. The ensembles show that the invest may move into the Caribbean at 1008 millibar strength. Given, other ensemble members are likely stronger with the system while others are weaker, but for now this is what seems to be a good level to track this invest.


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