Tuesday, July 31, 2012

GEM Ensembles Landfall Major Hurricane on US Soil

Several members of the Canadian's GEM model are landfalling a major hurricane on US soil on August 9th as Invest 99 begins to gather itself in the Eastern Atlantic.

Three of the members shown above have a strong low pressure system hitting the Northeast and Mid Atlantic regions on the 9th, which would have potentially devastating effects should there be significant rainfall that may overwhelm sewer systems in the area. Worth mentioning is member 2 of the GEM Ensembles, which has a 944mb major hurricane hitting the Northeast, which would just be catastrophic. Two other members also hit Florida as a strong low pressure system, both of which are in the 980mb realm, considered a fair hurricane.

The potential that this will actually happen is next to nothing. The GEM is known for overdoing things, and the atmosphere will not nearly be able to handle a system of such power, leaving that solution out of any reasonable possibility of a landfall.

This is still very much worth watching. While the eventual track and strength of the system may not be the solutions shown above, they still bear watching.


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