Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Lower Stratosphere Warming Up

The lower parts of the stratosphere are beginning to warm up, with the 70 millibar level now nearly at normal levels.
This warming trend now puts the stratosphere in a position for general cooler than normal conditions and what would be snowy conditions in the winter time.
Based on historical data, the stratosphere will likely keep around the normal line before dropping down again for winter. Things are certainly getting interesting!



Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew! Hope all is well! This certainly does look interesting! Let's hope all the other factors come together for a snowy/cold winter for those who like it.Side note:i have not seen ERNWX post much lately.Hopefully he is alright.

ERN WX said...

Mike, I am fine. No need to worry. I appreciate your concern though. ECMWF's early winter/late fall ndj fcst suggests what some say a +NAO, but with 1 it also appears to have WARM temps for AK and2 WARM temps over New Foundland, which points to a -NAO. SO, cold snowy temps seem reasonable. I have been too busy lately..... Maybe after I retire in 30+ yrs. I'll just post a lot while in the office during winter..........'