Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Southern Oscillation Index Rapidly Falling

The Southern Oscillation Index is now defined as 'Rapidly Falling' as we enter June and begin to see sea surface temperatures warming in accordance with this new SOI development.

At the time this graph was plotted, the SOI was at -10 or so, which is characteristic of an El Nino. El Ninos are traditionally present when the Southern Oscillation Index is below -8, and La Ninas are indicated at 8 or above. At the time of writing, the 30 day average of the SOI was around the -10 to -12 mark, continuing to show a rapidly declining SOI.

The key thing to look for is to see if sea surface temperatures are coordinating their plan of attack with the SOI in the fact that the SOI is pushing for an El Nino. Let's take a look at the sea surface temperatures at the latest observations.

The latest temperature anomalies show El Nino temperature values across the eastern section of the ENSO monitoring area, which would essentially indicate an east based El Nino. This would indeed indicate a correlation with the SOI into the conclusion that there is an El Nino currently ongoing.

The direct effects may take a bit to come to light, but there does appear to be an El Nino-favored atmosphere.


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