Thursday, August 9, 2012

Caribbean May Be At Risk Over Invest 92

I believe that model guidance may be incorrect in assumptions that Invest 92 will be a threat to the East Coast and skirt the Virgin Islands to the north, as the steering layer chart above differs from the model guidance.

Steering charts are used for storms within a certain boundary of strength. This one is used for systems with central pressures at or above 1000mb, so we will use this chart to determine where Invest 92 will go. While it is not clearly defined, one can find it in the warm colors below the massive ridge in the Atlantic Ocean.

Looking at this steering chart, the models have good reason to be confused on the track- it is just below the ridge of high pressure. If it were to be influenced by this ridge, as many models are saying, the system would keep straight west and fire off towards the East Coast.
However, as a few models are starting to trend to, there is a tight belt of winds just below the ridge that would take the system southwest, through the Caribbean and possibly towards the USA. I find this to be more possible, as the warmest colors are in the belt of higher winds, and thus would have more influence on where the storm goes. Additionally, this is where the NHC indicates the system is, as shown below on the most recent NHC chart. Invest 92 is the one circled in red.



Anonymous said...

Andrew breaking news tropical depression number 7 has formed in place of invest 92 this is from the nws.

Andrew said...

Thank you for the news.