Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Charleston, Myrtle Beach Devastated by Isaac in GFS Individual Ensemble Forecast

A member of the 12z GFS Ensembles is showing a solution that would devastate Myrtle Beach and Charleston. This member shows a very strong hurricane slamming into the Southeast and possibly providing mass flooding and a preceding mass exodus, should this threat become real.

However, realistically, this possibility is very very low. That's why we also have a mean forecast of these individual ensemble forecasts. This is more of a for-show piece, but also demonstrates the potential that Isaac now has, and just what it ends up doing is very uncertain after what the ECMWF put out today, and that is shown below.

At Hour 240, the ECMWF is projecting a 961mb hurricane moving towards the Gulf Coast. Because rapid intensification will have been ongoing to this point, it is very possible that such intensification continues. From then, landfall could likely occur from Louisiana eastward. The ECMWF Ensembles are not as eager, but do show a system entering the Gulf of Mexico, and this could very well get aggressive very, very fast.

More on this will be available tomorrow.


1 comment:

ERN WX said...

Just like attm Irene was exected to hit FL, Isaac is the same. However, the trough will pull Isaac EAST into SC. Isaac is going to be big and VERY BAD so it will be pushed E of where the NHC predicts. GFDL looks decent. HWRF too slow. 12z ECMWF????? I'll get on that.