Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Tropical Depression NINE Forms in Atlantic

Tropical Depression NINE has formed this morning over the Atlantic out of Invest 94, beginning the process that could land this system anywhere from Texas to Nova Scotia at any strength you can think of. Below is the latest model spread.

The latest 12z model spread is split, but a general consensus keeps the system going on a mainly westward track before curving north and threatening Florida. Which side it threatens remains a question, and that will largely depend on how weak/strong it becomes over the next 24-48 hours. Let's look at the observed track to see recent trends.

The latest trend in Tropical Depression NINE's track is a west-southwest movement, which bodes well for a threat to the Gulf Coast. Now, this threat is not too great to begin with (unless a southwest motion begins), but a Florida threat increases with every motion to the west or west-southwest. Typically, systems above the 10 N line will recurve and go either out to sea or threaten the East Coast. Whether that happens remains to be seen.


Past track and forecast tracks from UW-Milwaukee

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