Friday, August 10, 2012

Ernesto Dissipates; Redevelopment in East Pacific Likely

Tropical Storm Ernesto dissipated today as it encountered landfall in Mexico, but as it emerges into the open waters of the East Pacific, redevelopment appears likely.

The NHC has outlined this system with a 60% chance of redevelopment into a tropical cyclone. There will be some obstacles in the way, however, with shearing already above 30 knots in Ernesto's path and upper level divergence at a pretty high value. Despite this, the system is maintaining a good form by satellite standards, and it would only take additional convection and strengthening to get the system where it needs to go.

The SHIPS forecasting model has it reaching above 100 knots of wind speed, as seen below.

                TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 17 16 16 19 30 43 56 67 78 90 100 106

Note: 'No Land' refers to the strength it can reach with no land interaction.


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