Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Evacuations Recommended as Rainfall Forecasts Skyrocket

I, personally, am recommending evacuations across the New Orleans area as new rainfall data comes in.

These are two rainfall forecasts by short range models.
The top is the WRF-NMM, the bottom is the WRF-ARW. They are showing total precipitation at 75 hours on top and 72 hours on bottom.

The top image shows 1214 millimeters, or 47.8 inches of rain hitting the MS/AL border.

The bottom image shows 825 millimeters, or 32.48 inches of rain hitting New Orleans.

I am recommending evacuations at my own discretion, NOT from the NHC. Repeat, this is NOT AN OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT EVACUATION.



Anonymous said...

Hey Andrew, How are you doing?

After the latest advisory (11 AM Tues.) from the NHC was released, Isaac is still a Tropical Storm... Poor judgment behalf the NHC... I think it should at least be a Cat 1 by now because the pressure is 976 mb, flight level winds at 89 knots measured, eye wall wrapping around center on radar, and a visible eye in the middle should be enough. Let alone the areas the Hurricane Hunters didn't go, there could be cat 1 conditions. Not a big fan of the gov at this moment. There job is to protect people and people won't take this seriously. Also, the locals won't be evacuating if it is a Tropical Storm, compared to a cat 1, 2, or 3 where they would usually evacuate. Shame on them. I just hope everyone stays safe. (Already 24+ deaths in Cuba when it was a young storm)

Alice McDonald said...

I understand that you are very busy with the acute stage of Isaac. My question is, it seems then to be coming this way (NE In) by the weekend. About when will predictions become accurate for this area? And anything as to what to expect. Thanks as always Andrew.

Andrew said...

Anonymous: Thanks for the little disco, always great to have others' inputs!

Alice: I have a feeling that when Isaac makes landfall today, the 0z suite of models tonight will have a much better handle on the system. However, this 'better handle' may have to be fully defined tomorrow morning with the new 12z suite.