Friday, August 3, 2012

First Forecast on TS Ernesto: Double Landfall Likely

I am forecasting Tropical Storm Ernesto to make a double landfall- once on the Yucatan Peninsula and another time on the Gulf Coast.

I believe Ernesto will follow model guidance and move northwest into a sharp north-northwest motion with time. As Ernesto moves into the western Caribbean, strengthening into a hurricane is likely, and Hurricane Ernesto should make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. There is a chance that Ernesto could skirt the Yucatan Peninsula and not make landfall, but for now I think that a brief landfall is likely.
Following this brief landfall, Ernesto should rapidly strengthen in the vicinity of the Gulf of Mexico. I find it likely that strengths in the Gulf of Mexico could surpass Category 2 strength, possibly entering major hurricane status.

Climatologically, tropical cyclones that originate from Africa take one of two paths: A sharp turn north that hugs the East Coast and eventually shoots out to sea, or taking the southern route that moves through the Caribbean and hits the Gulf of Mexico. Given that TS Ernesto is already in the Caribbean, I find it unlikely that Ernesto will ride the coast. Rather, going with history, Ernesto should scrape/landfall the Yucatan Peninsula and then hit the Gulf Coast.
As of now, the models remain spread out over a Gulf Coast landfall, but if I had a say, I would think that Texas and Louisiana would be at the most risk, along with part of Mexico. However, since stronger storms have a tendency to curve north, it may come down to the wire in when Ernesto strengthens and where this strengthening happens in order to determine how far Ernesto curves north. That said, it would be a good idea for the entire Gulf Coast to be on watch.



David said...

hi so it wont ride up the east coast?

Andrew said...

It is highly unlikely that the East Coast will get this system.

David said...

andrew is there a reason why not that many people post comments any more

Andrew said...

Since many people on here like winter, the most comments come in winter.