I am forecasting Tropical Storm Ernesto to make a double landfall- once on the Yucatan Peninsula and another time on the Gulf Coast.
I believe Ernesto will follow model guidance and move northwest into a sharp north-northwest motion with time. As Ernesto moves into the western Caribbean, strengthening into a hurricane is likely, and Hurricane Ernesto should make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula. There is a chance that Ernesto could skirt the Yucatan Peninsula and not make landfall, but for now I think that a brief landfall is likely.
Following this brief landfall, Ernesto should rapidly strengthen in the vicinity of the Gulf of Mexico. I find it likely that strengths in the Gulf of Mexico could surpass Category 2 strength, possibly entering major hurricane status.
As of now, the models remain spread out over a Gulf Coast landfall, but if I had a say, I would think that Texas and Louisiana would be at the most risk, along with part of Mexico. However, since stronger storms have a tendency to curve north, it may come down to the wire in when Ernesto strengthens and where this strengthening happens in order to determine how far Ernesto curves north. That said, it would be a good idea for the entire Gulf Coast to be on watch.