Friday, August 3, 2012

Invest 90 Forms Off Africa; Development Possible

Invest 90L has moved off of Africa and currently poses a 30% chance of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

Satellite imagery of Invest 90 shows a well defined area of showers and thunderstorms with outer banding already evident on the southern part of the system. What concerns me is the raggedness of the system, especially on the north and eastern side of the invest. This raggedness leads me to believe that conditions across those areas are unfavorable for development, and also tells me that development of this system in the next 48 hours does not seem to great unless the system is able to better organize itself.

A water vapor loop indicates a wide swath of dry air to the north of Invest 90, supporting the theory that this system is having some troubles. Additionally, there is an arm of drier air to the west of Invest 90 that appears to be increasing. This will also hamper any development potential over the next 48 hours.

There is no model guidance available yet, and no satellite floaters on site yet. Due to those two lacking factors, I am unable to accurately provide any other details.


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