Wednesday, August 8, 2012

Invest 92 May Pose Threat to East Coast

Model Guidance suggests that Invest 92, located to the far east of the Barbados, may eventually pose a threat to the East Coast, with several models suggesting the system moving to the north or south of the Leeward Islands in due time.

There is little consensus among the models as time goes on, but a general idea does appear to have the system skirt around the Leeward Islands before curving north and posing a threat to the East Coast. When or if the system does curve north will be a big factor in how much the East Coast is affected.

This is the latest steering map for systems at or above 1000mb. Basically, it can help show you where the system is heading. At the moment, the steering map indicates that Invest 92 will have to skirt around a large ridge in the Atlantic. If we look to the west of the ridge, there is still a fairly tight wind field that could easily pick up the system and throw it out to sea. Seeing as winds appear unsupportive for west or southwesterly movement, I find this solution to be on the table of possibility. Nonetheless, the East Coast and Southeast will have to watch this system closely.


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