Tropical Storm Ernesto has formed in the Atlantic Ocean this afternoon. Satellite imagery indicates intense convection in the center and southwestern flank of the storm, with outer banding becoming evident, especially on the northern side of the storm. Additional banding is also evident on the eastern side of the tropical cyclone.
Tropical storm warnings have been hoisted in portions of the Caribbean as the National Hurricane Center forecasts Ernesto to move west-northwest before eventually making a northwest turn. During the northwest turn, strengthening to a hurricane appears likely.
If we look beyond the NHC forecast, landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula appears likely before the system exits into the Gulf of Mexico and churns there before threatening either Mexico or Texas. This will have to be closely monitored.