What is more concerning is the shearing to the north of the depression, which is clocked at a strong 40-50 knots. This certainly poses a challenge to any significant formation on the northern flank of the depression, and there will likely not be any development in that area until shearing decreases.
Short range models are projecting TD-FIVE to move nearly westward before gaining a general west-northwest movement that could eventually transition into a northwest motion. Strength forecasts do have the depression waiting a bit before gaining tropical storm status. I agree with this, as there remains issues with development in the depression.
This is extremely concerning, as it presents a clear threat to the Gulf of Mexico with a possible landfall of a tropical system. There appear to be three possible tracks that the GEFS members are taking:
• Texas Landfall
• Mexico Landfall
• Southeast Landfall
Either one of these tracks could have a profound effect on life and property, and all possible options will have to be watched closely.