Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Atmosphere May Be Sabotaging El Nino; Robust Winter Prospects Affected

**First and foremost, this post is dedicated to the victims of the September 11, 2001 attacks at the World Trade Centers, The Pentagon, as well as Shanksville, Pennsylvania. Also in this dedication are the first responders and Good Samaritans who both did or did not survive this tragedy.**

New data has come to my attention that suggests that the atmosphere may be trying to sabotage El Nino at this time.

As I reported in an earlier post, the El Nino is on differing pages as for the sea surface temperatures and the atmosphere. The SST's are showing an El Nino is present, while the atmosphere is not positively responding to such a revelation. Let's take a look at what I have found.

Refresh page if animation stops
The animation above shows temperature anomalies in the Equatorial Pacific waters, specifically over the ENSO monitoring area. At the beginning of the animation, we can clearly see an El Nino progress upwards from deeper waters, specifically from the 200 meter mark. The main body of warmer waters is centered further to the east, making this a central-east based El Nino.
However, take a look at the last few frames. We can see the warm waters over the central ENSO monitoring regions actually dissipating, and cold water anomalies forming right below this. These cool waters are actually slightly strengthening, posing a big question as to how formidable this El Nino really is. Could the waters be turning on the El Nino in addition to the atmosphere? Will the El Nino even be around for winter? Let's take a look at what the atmosphere says on that subject.


Let's start with 850 millibar wind anomalies. Above is what an El Nino would bring in terms of 850mb wind anomalies to the world. We want to focus in on the equatorial Pacific, where we see above normal wind anomalies in the fall months. That said, if we were to be looking for a sign that the atmosphere is on board with an El Nino, we would want to see stronger than normal winds at the 850mb level. Let's take a look at what 850mb winds are looking like right now.


Latest observed wind anomalies in the region suggest there is nothing significant suggesting that an El Nino is present. The chart above shows pockets here and there of stronger winds, but by the slightest of margins- and they aren't even in the right places! The fact that there are no lower level winds that would be in line with that of an El Nino greatly concerns me, and concerns my confidence in the potential for an El Nino to take hold in the next several weeks.

We can even look at a larger scale of wind anomalies for the world as a whole, and these results only add to the confusion. In what an El Nino would show as normal to below normal wind anomalies in the extreme southern Pacific, the observed wind anomalies depict a much windier than normal environment in that region. Even the typically-calmer than normal winds in southern India in the midst of an El Nino are replaced by strong winds- a bad sign for the El Nino.

Moving on, we can also use something called the OLR, or Outgoing Longwave Radiation, to measure the ENSO phase. In a nutshell, when the OLR is positive, a La Nina is likely to be present. However, in the negative OLR, an El Nino should be found. Let's take a look at the latest observed OLR values for the last few months, as well as the values for the last several days.


Monthly oLR values over the past several months suggest a low confidence level of the atmosphere, with fluctuations from positive to negative being observed from late spring to the current time.  July did have a low OLR which would signal the presence of an El Nino, but August dashed those hopes, with a +0.2 OLR being observed.
Looking at the last few weeks, fears of an un-Nino like environment are confirmed. Throughout the past several weeks, a notable absence of negative OLR values was observed. Positive anomalies were even found where the El Nino should be, conclusive to a lack of atmospheric support to an El Nino.

But wait- There's More!

Courtesy of University at Albany student 'Carl'
The chart above shows precipitation anomalies currently. Typically, we would expect to see above normal precipitation anomalies both in the circled area and just to the north of the same circled area, where the El Nino appears to be based. However, there is no above normal anomalies in the circled region, and only scattered anomalies across the region shaded in orange and red. This lack of widespread precipitation poses a problem to the development of the El Nino. A continued lack of above normal precipitation would lead to additional concerns over how much influence this El Nino could have over the winter.

In conclusion, this new suite of data I have discovered has led me to believe that the atmosphere is not on the same terms as the sea surface temperatures. Additionally, underwater cooling of the same warm water anomalies is only building concern for how far the El Nino can go, especially into this winter.

Climate models are beginning to back off as far as the intensity of the El Nino goes. In my opinion, this is a very wise choice- some further weakening may even be needed going into late fall and winter, as the El Nino is expected to die down further going into that time frame.

As for winter-- The analog year of 2006-2007 that I posted on the earlier referenced post is looking better and better to me, as long range forecasts encourage a stormy pattern over the central and east US, with ridging in the Northwest. Some of you may know a pattern called the LRC, or Lezak Recurring Cycle, and this may be a part of that cycle that is setting up this winter.

Here are the 2006-2007 winter anomalies.




The winter of 2006-2007 was a wet one for the Ohio Valley and Midwest into the Plains. The probability of this exact scenario is unlikely, and there are always additional margins for error with using only one analog year. However, with each day of the atmosphere and SST's differing on the Nino, the prospect for a 'fake' El Nino grows further.

Andrew

28 comments:

mike paulocsak said...

Hi Everyone.In my personal opinion,anybody that lives east of the rockies including the following areas,the Midweast,Great Lakes,Central Plains,Mid-Atlantic,and the Northesat have a decent chance of a snowy/cold winter.As we all know,many factors still have to be worked out yet.I'm sure Andrew will keep us updated on this!Great article Andrew!Keep up the excellent work on your site!!!!!!!I'm sure everyone that followed this site last winter will be back this winter!

Anonymous said...

So another words,it's lookinglike a wet and warm winter?

ERN WX said...

Their will be high pressure over AK. Cold air will be forced into the East/ MW. Euro shows that.

mike paulocsak said...

Hello ERNWX! Like i posted above,i'm thinking that we are going to have a good winter regardless what the models say.

WinterStorm said...

Hello all! Whether or not this El Nino gets into the atmosphere is a big factor when forecasting this winter. If it does, the East Coast will likely receive a pounding. If it doesn't, this winter may be more like 2006-2007. Of course, like Andrew said, it probably wouldn't be exactly like that. No winter is identical. 2006-07 would be better for snow chances in the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Midwest. I think that the East Coast will likely get some big snows, along with the Midwest region. Right now we just need to wait and see what happens. By November, things should be clearer. Love all of the posts and discussion and I can't wait for winter!

mike paulocsak said...

Hello WinterStorm.Agreed!I cannot wait for winter either.I think we all have a good shot at some decent snows.I also like to follow this site and talk about the weather.

cg2916 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Chris said...

How's the southeast looking? Specifically, NW South Carolina?

Anonymous said...

I thought I saw something awhile back about cooler Pacific pockets of water moving N from the west coast of S. America. I wonder if central plains will see a very mild winter. I thought the last was ridiculous with the warmer temps.

Thanks for the kind words about what happened 11 years ago. Happened 2 hours away when I lived in NJ at age 12 and remember it like yesterday. My father worked in Newark, NJ and he witnessed the second collision and the towers crumble. I'm happy to have an old photo of WTC! So easy to see something cherished disappear for no reason.

Anonymous said...

This El Nino is still evolving and no one can make that call yet. It seems very odd that only Saturday 9/8 we had an official winter forecast and literally 2 days later have a contradictory statement. Seems that perhaps these folks should not make such bold statements until the data become a little more clear or the winter gets a little closer.

ERN WX said...

Hello, Mike and WinterStorm, mdls consistently show an East Coast trough=cold wet wx. I see that as the winter pattern along with a-NAO because of a warm New Foundland. Also the Feb superstorm I expect. I agree cold white winter for many of us.

Anonymous said...

I hate to post agagin so quickly but after reading this article I went and did my own research and the updated SST forecast displays that the El Nino, after rising in Aug. will take a SLIGHT dip through about the middle of Oct. and then climb to a weak moderate position until about Feb. and then begin to trail off. This forecast has not changed for the last couple of months.

ERN WX said...

Anonymous, I don't think this is exactly a contradictory statement, it just shows uncertainty. I understand what you are saying. I am confident a full weak Nino will be here for winter.

Anonymous said...

@ ERN WX - If we are in agreement then I don't understand what the author of this article is trying to tell us. It sounds as though he is saying that the El Nino will become a La Nada or go back to La Nina. If that is the cast then the Winter forecast they put out this past week-end would have to be updated and re-written and it is only Sept.

ERN WX said...

Anonymous, Andrew does expect a Nino, just maybe not so much impact. He is very good with forecsting.

Andrew said...

I stand behind my forecast 100%. The things I am putting out are informative as opposed to forecasts. I do expect the El Nino to hang around, but this is just among the possibilities.

Anonymous said...

@ Andrew - I stand corrected. I mistook this article to mean that something very dramatic had occured that was making you re-think your postion on the coming El Nino. Did you see the lates SST model forecast as of 9/11/12 that shows the graph I referenced??? You can see a definite dip in the Nino 3-4 region corresponding to what your article is saying but then there is an upward swing coming on in mid October.

WinterStorm said...

Hello. If you're interested, here is the Old Farmers Almanac's Winter Outlook: Click Here

The forecast seems to show an arctic high pressure over the Northeast;keeping the area cold but dry. This would also suppress storms to the south. In other words, this wouldn't be very good for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast if it were to come true.

Also,remember that an east based -NAO is good for the Plains,Midwest,Ohio Valley, and the Great Lakes, while a west based -NAO is good for the east coast.

Anonymous said...

Hello WinterStorm.This looks very intersting!This may be a scenerio that comes true.The people in the Northeast may get mad if they see this.The are really banking on a very snowy winter along with the mid-atlantic.

Anonymous said...

One thing I find a little crazy about the way the Almanacs do their forecasts,is how they outline the regions.They really make a sharp cutoff of what region is going to get certain precip.ammounts etc.Just a thought.

WinterStorm said...

Yep, gotta love those almanac maps. :-) I wouldn't put too much into their forecast right now. A lot of things can still change with that map.

Anonymous said...

Hello WinterStorm.Agreed.It's still only September.By November,we should have a better idea of what winter holds in store for us.

Anonymous said...

Thank you to whoever posted the map from the Almanac. I think it's fun to read but I personally wouldn't put too much faith in that forecast. The map doesn't look right from the prospective of it looks like they took a typical Strong eastern based El Nino and merged it with another type of winter signal. I don't get where the moisture source is coming from for there to be a wet area from Montana down the eastern spine of the Rockies but mild and dry for the upper Mid-West.l6

Anonymous said...

Hello Anonmymous above me.Maybe the person who does the almanacs forecasts doesn't think that there will be an el-nino this winter.It's still on September.Alot of time until official winter arrives.The models change every day.Remember last winter everyone thought that it was going to be a snowy/cold winter,it turned out against everyones expectations.

Anonymous said...

If the folks at the farmers Almanac don't think there is going to be an El Nino then why does this map depict one???? And everyone did not predict a cold snowy winter last. Someone started it and then everyone else jumped on until Jan when it bacame apparent that wasn't goign to happen.

Anonymous said...

The map does not show signs of an el-nino.The northeast would be cold/snowy.This map shows it being a cold/dry winter!

Anonymous said...

If you knew what an El Nino looked like you would agree. An eastern based strong El Nino shows above normal precip, in the Soutwest U.s. and all across the south. The upperMidwest in a strong El Nino is above normal Temp. and below precip. That is why I state earlier that this map makes no sense based upon what the Farmer's Almanac show for the Northeast.

mike paulocsak said...

I agree with the last anonymous.