Monday, September 24, 2012

El Nino Is (Temporarily) Dead

The latest sea surface temperature anomalies across the Equatorial Pacific indicate that the El Nino has dropped off and disappeared, temporarily making this El Nino dead.

The reason I say temporarily is because underwater anomalies are still in an El Nino stage. However, these warm waters are not near the surface and are several dozen meters below the surface. As I have been saying for the last week or more, this El Nino is struggling, and this only continues to prove my case that the El Nino is dying off.

I believe that we still are in an El Nino, only because this is the first update that shows no warm SST anomalies. However, if the same scenario is shown next week, the probability of a neutral winter will skyrocket in my eyes.

ENSO monitoring regions are still hovering around positive-neutral temperatures (just below 0.5 degrees above normal), so we know that the El Nino is not completely killed off. However, this is a big step as far as the potential for a neutral winter, possibly hinting at a La Nina into spring or summer.



mike paulocsak said...

I'm thinking this winter will be like a ROLLER COASTER! One week may be warm and rainy,while the following week may be cold and snowy.As for who will get the BIG snows,it all depends on these three fators and more.The path of each storm.Which direction the storm decides to take.Usually 50 to 150 miles to the west northwest of the storm center the heaviest snow falls.The pace ofthe storm.Slower storms produce more snow than faster moving storms.Of course,storm systems can move slow the speed up or vise versa.They all have a mind of their own.The punch of the storm.How strong the storm system gets.For example,when a storm system might effect Ohio,may lose it's energy from a stronger storm system that develops along the eastern slopes of the Appalachian mountains.When this happens,Ohio usually doesn't get the heavy snow as they would have if the storm didn't develop over the eastern slopes of the Appalachian mountains.All in all i'm thinking it will be a very interesting winter for everyone!

ERN WX said...

Mike, if the NAO can't lock into any phase this will be the roller coaster.

Anonymous said...

So if the el nino goes away and its a neutral winter will this mean more snow for southern mn? We average around 40" of snow
2 years ago we got 90" and it was awesome!! I wish we could get that again this year :)

Cam Smith said...

If the el nino does not warm back up, does this mean the east coast will see a above average temps and below average snowfall

ERN WX said...

The thing I see so often about the pattern is an East Coast trough. This will likely be prevalent in winter meaning cold and snow regardless of the ENSO. This year could be called the year of the ARCTIC for the Eastern half. The NAO and AO will be the determining factors. I and many others are confident in a cold snowy East Coast. Andrew, do you see the Dec snowstorm????? Hope it occurs in Dec. See GFS 18z.