Friday, September 7, 2012

Significant Northeast Severe Weather Threat Tomorrow

A significant severe weather event appears possible tomorrow in the Northeast, as the Storm Prediction Center now outlines a moderate risk of severe weather across the region. Let's take a look at what will be happening during that time period.

Water vapor imagery suggests a disturbance is moving to the east, and this is reflected by shower and embedded thunderstorm development in a linear fashion now entering the Midwest region. This disturbance will continue moving east, and could very well strengthen, as a water vapor loop sees an enhancement of moisture currently ongoing in southern Canada in close proximity to the disturbance.

Model guidance suggests a long bowing line will develop out of this disturbance, and this line appears to be most enhanced in the eastern Pennsylvania/eastern New York areas. This could very well be a derecho, and this possibility must be closely monitored.
The line is expected to traverse the coast and move offshore. Model guidance does suggest sustained winds in excess of 20 knots in some areas, so a damaging wind event is certainly a possibility, as the SPC is suggesting.

REMEMBER: The Official 2012-2013 Winter Forecast will be released TOMORROW at 12:00 PM CT.



Anonymous said...

They are not sure yet what event it will be. They do hint of either a derecho, tornado outbreak, or both. They hint tornado outbreak is possible if any supercells form before converging, embedded supercells exist, and if discreet supercells resist convergence long enough. ERN, keep us posted in 24 hours!

WinterStorm said...

Looks like a potentially good day for chasing!