Sunday, September 30, 2012

THE COLD IS COMING!

The cold weather is coming, and coming fast. The latest ECMWF is showing very cold 850mb temperatures across the North Plains, pushing into the nation following a cold front that is entering the central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley at the time of this image.

If the ECMWF is to be believed (and it should be), the coldest air of the season is only days away. This would mean that the first two weeks of October should be met with more people wearing jackets and long-sleeved shirts than in the last few weeks.
You may be thinking that the models are probably just overestimating this event, but the scenario has some backing to it.

The East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) both plummet to the negative phase in the first week of October, setting the stage for a very cold period for the second and third weeks of October. When the EPO is negative, we commonly see a cold period across the east US and warm conditions in the West. With the negative AO, the north and east US get cooler than normal. These two combined will enable colder than normal air to set up across the region.
However, Halloween is looking like it will not be as cold as the next couple of weeks will be, as the EPO looks to rise back to a more positive phase.

Andrew

7 comments:

WinterStorm said...

Hi everybody! What do you think about this winter forecast? Storm Central's Winter Forecast

mike paulocsak said...

Hello WinterStorm.Very interesting forecast.They sure predict a large area to receive many icestorms.I'm thinking that the northern parts of the Ohio Valley will receive more snow then ice.Again,this all depends on how much warm air is pulled into the systems.

WinterStorm said...

The track that they are showing is sort of similar to the track of the 2011 Groundhog Day Blizzard. I would love another one of those! I'm keeping my fingers crossed...:-)

Cam Smith said...

Hi! Will the east coast such as new jersey be in for the cold any time soon or in the next few weeks. Why isn't the cold moving towards the east coast. Also, when do you expect the snow to start flurrying in NJ? Thanks a lot!

ERN WX said...

WinterStorm, cool outlook. Not 100% in agreement though, bad storm track for what they say. Cam, as a NJ fcstr, I expect a cool snowy winter. 1st snow early Dec, I say. Cold starts next week!!!!!!!!

GregoryD said...

Do you expect there could be a snow storm during winter in South Carolina?

Anonymous said...

For Gregory D. You know that South Carolina is not in for a snow storm. That is crazy when South Carolina don't ever get any but a few flakes and that if you lucky. Go North for the snow storms.