Monday, October 8, 2012

Blocking Setting Up In Wrong Places; Situation Similar to Last Winter

The latest GFS Ensemble spaghetti model forecast has strong high pressure, or 'blocking', setting up on the other side of the world, setting up a situation all too familiar from last winter.

Blocking is a term used for when a high pressure system stalls out in the upper latitudes. If this blocking can set up in the right places, snow and cold can flow south into North America. However, if this blocking happens to set up in the wrong places, like on the other side of the world, we may encounter trouble with obtaining cold and snow.

Before you get worried about a last year repeat, know this: We are in an ENTIRELY DIFFERENT pattern and scenario in this year compared to last.

Last year, fall was warm and not many cold shots came our way. In that sense, we had a forewarning. Already this fall, we have observed snow and cold throughout the nation- something many did not experience at all last winter. Additionally, this year, the pattern is much more progressive, meaning that there is less of a chance of a ridge staying put for weeks on end this year compared to last.

While this is not something we want to see during the fall and winter, it would be much worse if this blocking were to stick around for days upon days. If that were to happen, we could have a harder time getting some good snow and cold come winter.

Andrew

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Looks like another winter exactly like last.

Andrew said...

As I said in the post, we are in entirely different patterns.

Cam Smith said...

So what are your thoughts for the northeast now?

Anonymous said...

ANdrew are you off of school today? If so then maybe today would be a good day for a winter forecast!

Andrew said...

You will find out in the final winter forecast at noon CT.

Andrew said...

I'm already releasing the final winter forecast at noon today.

Anonymous said...

Yippee!