Thursday, October 11, 2012

LRC May Be Active This Winter

Above are ensemble forecasts for various time periods throughout the next 5 to 14 days. As you can see, there are many instances of ensemble members showing deep depressions in the US and Canada. I'm going to tell you what that means for us, and what it may do to the Lezak Recurring Cycle.

The Lezak Recurring Cycle, commonly abbreviated as the LRC, is an annual pattern that was first recognized by Gary Lezak. Lezak found that a pattern sets up in late fall (October into November) that repeats itself throughout winter. Each time this repetition happens, it is a cycle. Here's the low down.

•Each cycle lasts 40-60 days.
•Storm systems, high pressures, warm ups and cold snaps are included in these cycles.
•The pattern, while annual, is never the same as the last.

We are in the observation period of the LRC, looking for signs of the first cycle and trying to get the pieces of the puzzle to fall into place so forecasters can begin using the LRC. Above are individual ensemble member forecasts for different time frames through the next 5-14 days. As you can see, many members have deep depressions in the lines, which are forecasting the 500mb heights. These depressions are storm systems- the deeper the depression, the stronger the storm.

The fact that we are seeing such strong storm forecasts in the next couple of weeks makes me think that the Lezak Recurring Cycle may be playing a part here. Because these systems should strike when we are still in the observation stage, I find it very plausible that these systems may be found in January, when the next cycle most likely repeats.


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Cam Smith said...

When do you think NJ will have a strong cold front? Or get its first possible snowfall. Thank!

ERN WX said...

Cam, as an Nj fcstr I expect a good cold front by the end of this month. The first snow early December likely a clipper dumping 1-3 inches. I expect a good amount of snow too for the winter. 125% of normal as of now.