On the right is current snow cover in blue, superimposed with typical snow cover for this time of year, outlined in green. Right now, much of Siberia is supposed to be under snow cover. And, as you can see, blue colors exceed the climatology lines, indicating an abundance of snow cover in Siberia.
Siberian snow cover is known to be a help in predicting this winter. Multiple studies (source 1) have shown that Siberian snow cover can predict North America's winter in advance. It has been found that a lack of Siberian snow has led to below normal snowfall in the following North American winter, and this correlation is the same with above normal snowfall in Siberia.
Considering we appear to be off to the races a little bit more than normal, this bodes well with both my forecast and the hopes of many snow lovers this winter. I will be tracking Siberia through October to help me forecast the rest of winter.
Andrew
7 comments:
Howdy Andrew! Your doing an awesome job.
What does this winter hold for north Texas? Specifically the northern areas of DFW metroplex?
it actually looks a little bit below normal especially west of greenland
Anonymous #1: Probably averaging out around normal. Be wary of temperature swings.
Anonymous #2: This post is for Siberian snow cover and does not include the North Pole.
Hi Andrew,
Nice to see these maps (at least if you want snow this winter!). If I understand Judah Cohen's work regarding the SAI which you linked to, what matters is the daily rate of change of snow cover in Eurasia during October, but importantly, only up to 60 degrees north latitude. What would be even more predictive is if you could find the daily snow cover data in Siberia up to that latitude over the course of this month. It already looks like there is significant new snow in the last week south of 60N, which bodes well for Eastern NA snow if the trend continues! Cohen's paper on this topic shows a really strong correlation between SAI and the phase of the AO in the coming winter. Here's the Cole's notes version for anyone that wants to learn more:
http://www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/mapp/webcasts/presentations/2012/1-10/Cohen.pdf
I am happy to see you searching out info. that has in the past been a great indicator of a colder and snowier winter in the east. Enedngen11arly snows and above normal snows in Siberia are a great sign of things to come for the lower 48. I believe last was a well below normal snow for that region and we all know what happened to our winter. Thank you Andrew
Is there a correlation with western NA?
Anon 10:46:
I don't think the correlation is as clear for Western NA, since the Snow Advance Index (SAI) predicts primarily the AO, which tends to go hand in hand with the NAO (hence greater influence on winter weather in E NA and W Europe).
The SAI was bang on last year in predicting a mild winter, but it's a young metric. Time will tell how good it is in the long run.
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