Friday, October 12, 2012

Medium-Range Forecast Looking Very Stormy

Several models have caught on to the idea of a very strong disturbance dipping into the nation in the next 5-8 days, but the location of each model differs. Let's take a look at what could happen in the medium range.

The GFS model is indicating a strong disturbance is to enter the nation and dip far into the Southeast, pulling down cold air and a general chill to the tropical region. Despite the strength of this system, the GFS puts relative humidity levels and precipitation values very low on land, while sending quite a bout of rain (and possible sleet) to the north and east. Despite the typical Nor'easter feel, the freezing line will not be far south enough to provide a good snow opportunity.

The NOGAPS model keeps the consensus going, with a strong system in the East and precipitation to the north and east of the center of the low. However, the NOGAPS is further north with this system and precipitation than the GFS. Relative humidity values within what appears to be this closed low are very high in comparison to the GFS. However, remember that the NOGAPS is not the most reliable, so take this solution at your own risk.

Now comes the ECMWF, known for being the best medium-range model currently in the weather world. The ECMWF has this system becoming a closed low like the NOGAPS. Relative humidity levels in the upper and lower levels of the atmosphere also supersede those of the GFS. What is more interesting is that the ECMWF has a pool of below-freezing air present in the western Great Lakes. This cold pool could easily force some wet snow to develop, possibly creating a wet blizzard as winds will be howling should this verify.

The medium range is definitely looking active. Who gets the precipitation and where this system ends up will be crucial not only to the short range, but to long range patterns like the LRC.


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