Friday, October 19, 2012

Monitoring Fall Trends For Winter

It has been shown that one can anticipate some parts of winter if fall trends of precipitation and temperatures are accounted for. Today, we examine what October has brought thus far.

The above image shows the month-to-date departure from normal precipitation for October across the nation. As you can see, the Midwest and Great Lakes have been in the thick of it, with the Ohio Valley and parts of the Northern Plains also getting into some wet spots. On the dry end of the spectrum, the the South Plains and parts of the East Coast reside.

Mother Nature has been sending system after system into the North Central and Northeast regions of the US this month, bringing abundant precipitation to some of those areas. Because we are already in the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC) observation period to see what this winter's pattern will be, I find this data to be a fair forecasting method for this winter.

If I were to add this precipitation data into my current thoughts, it would bode quite well in terms of precipitation placement in the nation. However, I do believe that the East Coast will get its fair share, and that this precipitation data is not doing the region justice.

Things are looking up!



mike paulocsak said...

One thing I can testify to is that Ohio has been getting hammered with rainfall in the last few months.In fact when we were dry back in the summer months we were close to 10"-12" below normal in the rainfall department.As of now,we are sitting pretty good in eastern and northern ohio along with other regions in Ohio as well.If this trend continues through the winter months and the cold air is there WATCH out for ABOVE normal snowfall.In fact a sI type this post now it's Friday 8:01 p.m.,and it's raining steady with heavier bands at times moving through.The point i'm trying to make is,we keep getting system after system moving through.

ERN WX said...

Mike, it has been a sponge here lately. Also the fall colors are amazing!!!!!!!!!!! Better than normal!!!! Andrew, I like the GFS former idea of a Nor'Easter. IF it happens, it COULD give modest snow amounts for some areas, excluding I-95 cities. January and February WILL be THE months this winter. Extreme cold and snow have the highest probability of being prevaent these moths. The NWS fcst for winter makes me sad. Taxpayer money for that??? At least the locals are better. They are right with warm out west but they really don't make sense. ALSO just a little while ago effective shear was AT LEAST 70kts!!!!!! In my area!!!!!!!! WOW!!!!!!!!!!

WinterStorm said...

Hi ERN WX and Mike! It's been pretty wet here too lately. Just last weekend I recieved around 1.60 inches of rain. That would be a good snowstorm if it was cold! Today is going to be another rainy day, with more rain showers. So, hopefully this pattern will continue into winter, which would comply with Andrew's thoughts. Neutral ENSO is fine with me. It should give my area a better chance of seeing some big storms than if we were in an El NiƱo. Can't wait for winter!

mike paulocsak said...

Hello WinterStorm & ERNWX! It's been a SOGGY weather pattern for a lot of us recently.I agree 100% with your statement ERNWX about the fall colors.It's exactly the same here in Ohio.I also agree 100% what you say about another rainy day is on tap for Ohio today.Hopefullt this pattern does continue through winter.As long as it is snow instead of rain.Take care guys!

ERN WX said...

Hello, Mike and WinterStorm, there looks like a lot of blocking will be present in the polar regions. Plus the lack of the dreaded Aleutian low. Cold air will probably be brought down by clippers keeping us COLD and snowy. If the AO/NAO/PNA can be favorable for just 2 weeks, we will certainly see abv avg snow. This winter will be interesting!!!!!! Neutral winter is perfect for me too. Avg 115% of nrml during neutral in the Philly area.

WinterStorm said...

Hi again! There are no leaves left on the trees in my yard. The windy conditions the past few weeks have blown all of them off. The wind was also a good thing, as there wasn't much raking to be done. Almost all of the leaves just blew away! ERN WX, the NWS' winter forecast IS pretty bad. They have really large area of "Equal Chances" on their forecast maps. On the bright side, at least that big blob of below normal precipitation they previously had on there is no longer in the OV/GL. Have a good day!