The weather world is closely watching what could be the last significant severe weather threat of the season over the Southern Plains and Midwest next weekend. Let's take a look now at the Midwest aspect of this severe weather threat.
Winds at the 500mb level indicate a strong yet compact disturbance will be pushing its way into the Midwest and Great Lakes, with winds at that level surpassing 70 knots. The system appears to be trying to attain a negative tilt, which would allow more enhanced stability to develop compared to positively tilted storms. The difference is the direction the lines above are facing. A positively-tilted storm would have the lines pushing southwest, while a negative tilt looks like the lines are moving to the southeast. The presence of such a small area of high winds is alarming in that the atmosphere may be trying to produce a tornado threat- something I wouldn't doubt with such strong mid-level winds.
This map is valid for Saturday evening, October 13. It is subject to change and will be drawn better in the future- I am squeezed for time and this is the best I could draw up at the moment.
|GREEN: Risk of strong storms|
Yellow: Risk of severe storms