Saturday, October 13, 2012

Tropical Corner: Atlantic Tropical Activity Ramping Up Soon

The latest forecast from the Climate Prediction Center on the 200 hPa level indicates that conditions will turn favorable for a late season spurt of tropical activity in the Atlantic.

The 200 hPa level is the level roughly where the jet stream is focused, and is associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO. Pushing past the conplicated aspects of the MJO, when you see below normal wind speeds at the 200 hPa level (green in the image above), conditions tend to be favorable for tropical cyclone formation. When this happens, the MJO is classified as being in Phases 8-1-2, all three of which can be favorable for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation is headed to these three phases over the next few weeks, and one can expect an increase in tropical cyclone formation. We have already seen Patty and Rafael form in the last 7 days, and I am expecting at least another storm to be named in the next month as the MJO gets into those phases that get the Atlantic energized.


No comments: