Thursday, November 15, 2012

Active Period Setting Up For Plains, Midwest Soon

I am predicting the setting-up of an active weather period for the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes by the end of the month and into the winter months.

I have made this discovery by finding the general weather pattern prevalent in the fall months, extrapolating it by about 50-52 days (a full cycle of the LRC this winter), and ending up with my result.  Here is the break-down.

•Active periods will be listed below. The Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes are affected.
   --- November 21 - December 14
   --- January 11 - February 2
   ---March 4 - March 27

I expect several disturbances to drop down from Canada and move north from the Plains to hit the region under the dark blue shade in the chart above. If my forecast verifies, this could very well mean several winter storms. I would anticipate the heaviest snowfall to hit the Upper Midwest, as well as a few big shots of snow around the Lower Great Lakes.



Anonymous said...

Nice forecast. What do you think about SE Michigan for End of November and December?

Anonymous said...

I have trouble accepting the LRC as a tool that can be used in forecasting. One reason is because whenever I do a search for information about the LRC, I really don't come up with a lot of information. Since its highly dependent on pattern recognition, I would expect to find a lot of information/maps with examples but I don't. Maybe I don't know how to do use the Internet :). Also, I think that if anyone looks hard enough, they can find eventually find weather patterns. Besides finding a similar looking pattern of troughs/ridges, what makes these patterns connected that gives you so much confidence to do a cycle forecast out to March?

Thanks for all your hard work.

ERN WX said...

Andrew, have you noted that the east has been cool and wet this fall , unlike last mess? Is this just for those time periods or the whole winter? will the east get its share of snow? I am fond of the idea of the Midwest getting their main snow before folks in the East. I see the NAO tanking in Jan.+a -AO. For a month the midwest could get pounded by tons of clippers dumping 2-8 inches with lake enhancement. Overall you are impressive with your forecasting skills. Thanks for the personal touch you put to forecasting.

ERN WX said...

Also the Midwest/OH Val are going to get a hefty amount of snow. I see no way they have another sad winter.

KakHome said...

ERN WX: Do you think Northern Ohio (Cleveland area) should be in the reach of this winter pattern with clippers and all without having to wait too long (in other words, am I close enough to Midwest and not East to qualify for the faster schedule)?

mike paulocsak said...

Agreed ERNWX! Eastern and Northern Ohio should do well this winter in the snowfall department.I'm thinking a MAJOR storm may hit sometime in the Feb.2013 timeframe.The Ohio Valley,Mid-Atlantic,and Northeast had a major storm back in February 1993.Then we all cannot forget the President's Day blizzard of February 2003.If you notice the ten year cycle these storms occured.The next chance would fall in the February 2013 timeframe.Again this is just a prediction.I myself believe in patterns when storms occur.

KakHome said...

Should we get at least average cold here in Northern OH as well?

Anonymous said...

this guy must be from the midwest/ OV area . his forecasts always favor that area over the rest of the country as far as cold and snow.

Anonymous said...

Andrew- is the southeastern portion of the northeast going to get a very snowy winter because it seems that (based on your recent articals) that the great lakes will get the main action. So will the southeast northeast get a snowy winter

ERN WX said...

KakHome, your area will be impacted by clipper snow and at least avg cold. Mike I am on it!!!!!!!!

Andrew said...

Anonymous: SE Michigan should stay in a pretty warm period, but expect a cooling trend and stormier trend with time.

Anonymous: It's not really that well known, hence the lack of internet info. I understand your skepticism, I also thought at first 'How can something predict the entire winter??' Think of the LRC like a circular running path. If you run at a constant speed, you'll pass the same spot at the same interval. This is like the LRC.

ERN WX: I have indeed noted this, and this bodes very well for much of the East. I agree wit your Midwest-first theory. The NAO will collapse in Jan, especially in Feb.

KakHome: Definitely.

2nd-to-last Anonymous: If you were from the Northeast and had a blog, would you prefer to forecast for the West or your region? Location bias affects everyone.

Last Anonymous: Yes.