Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Coastal Storm Will Not Affect Northeast Next Week

Models have been showing that a strong storm system may develop on the East Coast at the beginning of next week, and some agencies have been putting out warnings on how this system will strike the Northeast. I believe that this storm system will keep itself offshore, just as the above ECMWF model forecast is indicating.

This is the North Atlantic Oscillation forecast for the next couple of weeks from the ESRL/PSD agency on the left, and the NCEP agency on the right. I prefer the ESRL/PSD forecast, because all the NCEP forecast is is the GFS and its ensembles, while the ESRL/PSD has its own individual ensembles, apparently not relied on by any given model.

For those new to the NAO, here's a quick breakdown of the effects the NAO has: When you have the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in a positive state, the jet stream is diverted east out to sea for storms that ride the Gulf Coast. If these storms would have gone north along the East Coast, they are known as  Nor'easters (commonly seen in a negative NAO).

If we use those rules of thumb on the NAO and apply them to the above forecast, we see that the NAO will be neutral/going negative around the 21st, when this storm would supposedly be the strongest while still maintaining a fair distance from land. However, what many do not know is that there is a 4 day lag between the NAO's change and the effects the NAO then has. If we apply that rule to this situation, we then see that the NAO would begin to show signs of its negative phase around the 25th-27th, well after this storm system is out of the region.

In conclusion:
•A coastal storm may develop along the Southeast in coming days.
•This storm system will be diverted out to sea, not affecting land.


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Nice to see the coast may get a break and that the euro is caving to the gfs.