Thursday, November 8, 2012

East Asia Confirming Thanksgiving Storm Worries

Latest model forecasts are confirming my suspicions that Thanksgiving could get pretty messy for the Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Let's take a look.

This is the 500mb height anomaly forecast from the 18z GFS Ensembles. As you can see, the US is relatively uninteresting at this time period of November the 13th. However, take a look over at East Asia in the upper left hand corner of the image above. A very strong storm system is being forecasted to be digging in to East Asia at this time. The reason why this is so significant is that there is a correlation between weather in East Asia and weather in the East US, approximately 6-12 days later. Keep that in mind as we look at the next image.

This is the 500mb forecast for November 24 at the very end of the GFS' forecast period. This is a good 11 days following the deep East Asian trough. In this forecast, a very strong storm system is being predicted to hit the Northeast and southern Canada, about the same region where the East Asian correlation comes into play. Do you see what's going on here?

If you take another look at yesterday's Thanksgiving post (click here), you'll see how the MJO is moving in to a favorable position for cold and wet weather across the East US in the Thanksgiving Day time period. I also mentioned how the LRC was indicating that a strong storm system would hit the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes in this time frame.

I guess you could say it's all coming together.

With a possible 1-2 day lag on the above forecast, I am putting out the call that Thanksgiving will be stormy in the Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes regions, possibly extending in to the Northeast as East Asia confirms my fears of such a messy situation playing out in these regions. More updates will follow as I get more information on this system.

Andrew

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

What do you consider "messy"? I am hoping for a white Thanksgiving for Nebraska. A local station said it will be a snowy beginning of winter around eastern NE/western IA. Could these areas be getting a white Turkey Day?

Thanks for the post! Wait and see now!

dillon said...

can u explain this better please lol. what does this look like for kentucky?maybe snow???

mike paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.I was checking out some weather models,and they were hinting to a storm developing.Time will tell if it will be rain or snow in the areas you mentioned.

Bjenks said...

Andrew,

Hope this can slide a couple hundred miles to the south and hit more of the Ohion Valley. Would love to see a White Turkey Day, or better yet a WHITE black Friday.

KakHome said...

Should there be at least some form of cold in the East following this storm?

Andrew said...

Anonymous: 'Messy' just meaning...well, messy. You can't really describe it.

Dillon: Probably not snow, but precipitation is likely.

Mike: This is certainly an interesting situation, and it will be VERY interesting to see how this plays out.

Bjenks: I doubt that, the LRC has pinpointed more of a Plains and Midwest track, possibly a bit further north.

Kakhome: There is no need to comment more than once on the blog here or Facebook. Just one comment is fine, and it will be answered.

William Andreas said...

No Siberian outbreak though, could just be a rain event

dillon said...

ok so andrew what about the nights?..i know its gonna be colder for sure..any possibly icy precip for kentucky at nighttime perhaps?>

Anonymous said...

The most important question, does have any good news on hitting the Front Range of Colorado?
To me, that is absolutely critical information, I am hoping for at least a chance of some decent winter weather here.

Anonymous said...

Are we talking severe here or just rain/snow?