Sunday, December 23, 2012

December 25-27 Significant Winter Storm - 12/23 Evening Update

**Although not mentioned, all posts today are dedicated to Dawn Hochsprung, the principal of S.H.E.S. killed in the school's shootings.**

Above are the four major models' snowfall forecasts for the December 25-27 significant winter storm. All 4 models go out to 120 hours, except for the NAM, which can only go out to 84 hours.

The ECMWF and GFS appear to have a good handle on the snowfall. The ECMWF's snow is not showing up as significantly, because the site where this was gotten from (WeatherBell) derives the snow from precipitation forecasts, meaning they use a different algorithm to get snowfall forecasts from that model. Getting the real algorithm requires a LOT of money.

The GEM model is off in its own world, typical of one of the worse models in the forecasting industry. The NAM is heavier with the snow in the Midwest than the GFS or ECMWF models are. This is to be expected, however, considering the NAM has a colder and wetter bias than other models (a.k.a. it overestimates snow).

Personally, I'm thinking the GFS has a good solution going, mainly because the GEM is unreliable, the NAM always overestimates snowfall, and the ECMWF snowfall forecast isn't showing up correctly for some reason.

To see the full update from earlier today, click on this link.


1 comment:

mike paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.What are your thoughts on snowfall in northern Ohio?