December 25-27 Significant Winter Storm (Updated 12/23)

The December 25-27 timeframe only continues to look better and better in terms of snowfall for the Ohio Valley and Northeast.

Above is my latest thinking about this storm system. I believe that the system will drop a good 1-3 inches in southern Illinois and much of Indiana before 3-6'' accumulations take over in central Indiana. The storm begins to strengthen at this point, and all of Ohio s under the gun for shovelable snow. Northeast Ohio looks to get in on the worst snow of the state, with 6-12 inches possible. It is not out of the question that isolated areas in northern Pennsylvania could see amounts flirting with 12 inches, but much of the state should get 3-6 inches. New York will receive the worst of the storm, with the central part of the state up for a good 12''+ accumulation. Most likely the maximum amounts will get just below 15 inches, but certainly a good storm, depending how strong the storm gets when it receives the Atlantic influence. Maine is a little tricky, with much of the state likely to near 12 inches and scattered locations surpassing the one foot mark.

Considering this is a very busy weekend, the Impact Scale will come in handy. I am projecting Low Impact conditions through the Midwest locations, save Indiana. Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky are in the middle of a 'Moderate Impact' forecast, where some travel will be disrupted (i.e. some plane cancellations, several delays). The Northeast is covered in a 'Major Impact' forecast, as the heaviest snow will fall there. Widespread travel disruptions are likely, and I anticipate a chaotic mess for the days after Christmas as dozens of flights are cancelled, and hundreds of delays are observed.

A word of advice: I heard stories about some people driving to their location rather than flying during the December 19-22 blizzard. The car is much more dangerous than the airplane, as far as potential for having an accident in a winter storm goes. The car is in direct contact with the potentially-icy ground, while the airplane (despite its delays and cancellations) is much faster and safer. But that's me, and I'm not one to decide how you get back home for New Year's.

Andrew