Friday, April 13, 2012

Significant Tornado Outbreak Likely Tomorrow


In the afternoon Day 2 update, the Storm Prediction Center added a high risk area for east Nebraska and west Iowa. A high risk remains in effect for north central Oklahoma and south central Kansas.

As of now, a deep trough is slowly moving northeast towards Nebraska. Eventually, a cold front will latch onto this system and pull up the dry line to initiate storms tomorrow evening. It can be expected that supercells will dominate the landscape tomorrow in northern Oklahoma and south central Kansas.

Here is my graphic for tomorrow.
As a raging jet stream carrying a strong storm system moves eastward, a strong storm system will pick up the frontal boundaries in place over west Texas and the Oklahoma panhandle. The dry line will move east, bumping into at least 2000 j/kg of instability combined with at least 70 knots of shearing will make for a supercell situation.
The exact coverage of severe weather is not known right now, but enough parameters are in place for a tornado outbreak to happen tomorrow.

Supercells will form in central Oklahoma and south east/south central Kansas, where the greatest tornadic risk is. As the cold front overcomes the dry line overnight, these storms will shift to a more linear threat, with squall lines and derechos possible.

Chase Spot: Enid, Oklahoma.

**Be warned that this situation is extremely dangerous and life threatening. Make all preparations now and do not wait until the last minute. Repeat: This is life threatening and very dangerous.**

13 comments:

Aran said...

What is the "chase spot".

Andrew said...

The area where, if I were chasing this storm, would go.

Aran said...

I have never seen that.

Andrew said...

It's a new thing I am trying out for any storm chasers that might want to get some info on where to chase. I'm not a storm chaser professor, so this is just a rough estimate.

ERN WX said...

The more I look at this the more I am thinking SUPER OUTBREAK. EF 5's look possible. This is going to be very brutal. Prepare for significant damage if you are in the high or moderate risk areas. When tornado watches are issued it would be best if you stay in a storm shelter until they expire. Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio ALL day long. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS situation. Extreme damage is likely. Stay safe!!!

ERN WX said...

Andrew, a busy day for tomorrow. Get some rest tonight. TAke care!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Dallas ft worth texas needs to be prepared and monitor this closely?

ERN WX said...

I expect 75-150+ tornadoes tomorrow. Hail could be as large as 5 inches in diameter and winds will likely reach or exceed 100 mph. Expect packs of vicious supercells. During the night storms will probably become linear and form into a squall line. Wind will take over as the prime severe threat, but squallines do produce tornadoes. If you are under a tornado watch, get into a storm shelter until the watch expires. Very powerful, long track tornadoes will occur. Whole towns will likely be be completely destroyed. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS situation. AFTER the storms have passed you may report severe weather (hail over 1 inch, winds in excess of 58 mph or significant wind damage, and also tornadoes) to the National Weather Service.

Anonymous said...

Is the cap going to stay in place for us in North Texas? I'm in Denton.

Mtg said...

ERN WX, you always want people to report severe wx to the NWS!!!!!!!! I do too though. You were telling everyone about this one for the past month. Me if I were out there, I would storm chase all day. Hefty outbreak we are dealin with.

ERN WX said...

Mtg, you are not out there. Storm chasing next week. No sooner.

LJ-Lucas Reynolds said...

I'm thinking that central Kansas will be the heart of these storms and tornadoes. Then southern Nebraska and extreme north central Oklahoma. We will have to wait and see how these storms pan out. Everyone stay safe and be carefull with these storms.
LJ.

Andrew said...

Anonymous: There should be enough instability to make a few strong storms in north Texas.