Saturday, February 11, 2012

Feb. 14-18 Possible Snow: History Does Favor Snowfall (2/11/12)

I was taking a look through some historical analogs of situations similar to the possible February 14-18 snow event, and came across an interesting fact: Set-ups with similar situations historically have favored snowfall in the Midwest and Ohio Valley regions.
This will be a description on the 'most favorable' historical analogue that fits into this storm.

During the analogue date (February 13, 2009), here were the teleconnections compared to forecasts for this storm:

ENSO: -0.7
Comparison: Fair

PNA: -0.5
Comparison: Too Much Model Instability to Determine Comparison

NAO: -0.4
Comparison: Fair

AO: -2.5
Comparison: Bad

Teleconnections are not that good in comparisons at this time, so this may not end up comparing to this analogue the best. But let's keep looking.
The thing I am seeing is that the general NAO forecast and analogue comparison should be at least 'fair'. This level of comparison ought to be sufficient enough to not impact the storm too much. A much different AO may make a difference, but likely just in the amount of cold air. The PNA may end up as the big player.

500mb analysis indicates that the analogue storm emerged from northern New Mexico. The forecast storm is looking to emerge from the same area. By 'same', I mean right on the New Mexico/Colorado border, just like the analogue storm.
There are some differences in relative humidities and jet stream strengths between the GFS forecast and the analogue storm. The jet stream looks like it will be weaker than what the analogue storm has in play. The relative humidity (RH) differences look to be wetter in the forecast storm, meaning some additional precipitation could be in play.
And here's what we've all been waiting for: The snowfall analogue map.
72-hour snowfall ending February 14, 2009
Snowfall is favored for this storm in Nebraska and Iowa.
Again, the teleconnections are not all figured out and may play a different role in this storm that is forecasted. Also, storms do not 'play by the rules' by any means, so this might not even matter in the storm's final result.

Any questions can be asked below.
-Andrew

14 comments:

ERN WX said...

Heavy snow!!! Picked up an additional 3-4 inches!!!

Anonymous said...

No snow for Minnesota??

ERN WX said...

Did anybody else get snow from the arctic front and coastal snow? LES also counts. The snowsqualls that I got were very persistent. Snow rates were 1-2 inches an hour!!! They were amazing!!! hope others got snow. Andrew, did you get any? This was a neat event. Andrew, great post!!!!!! Keep up the great work!!! Got to work overtime today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.I noticed that from my years of living through snowstorms,way.way back in Feb.16-18,1993 my area got an amazing snowstorm with THUNDERSNOW that dumped 10" of snow.Another snowstorm event occured on Feb.16-18,2003 which is noted as the PRESIDENT'S DAY BLIZZARD that affected the Ohio Valley,Mid-Atlantic,and portions of the northeast.I got 12"-15" from this storm.This was nothing compared to what Keyser's Ridge got in Garrett county Maryland.They got 49" with 30 foot drifts.That was an amazing storm.The point i'm trying to make is that if you notice there is a ten year cycle which a storm occured.It's going to be interesting to see if a storm will occur in the Feb.16-18,2013 timeframe.I surely hope I didn't confuse you.This may just have been a lucky streak of storms when the occured,who knows.As you can tell,I keep track of certain storms when they occur.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Maybe I should have not posted the comment above this one.Certain RUDE people who visit this site might start ripping me apart again.I think it is interesting how the storms occured though.

Aran said...

I did ERN WX,13 inches and a few wind gusts over 65 mph!Do you think Valparaiso will get much from this storm?

Anonymous said...

you always predict a huge snowstorm across most of america and then ou wind it down to 2 states.......wow just wow!

Kyle said...

Ok, just saw snowfall map on my local news and they are saying much of the country will get big snow but when it gets near Indiana it will split into 2 separate lows and go north and south of Indiana and Ohio. U have to be kidding me, everytime for Indiana this year. I am throwing in the towel for Indiana this year. As for snow from the last system .2" which did even stick!

Kyle said...

Didn't stick, sorry I am little upset!

ERN Wx said...

Mike, very interesting point. I will watch for that! official accum. 3.5 in.

MIKE PAULOCSAK said...

HELLO ERN WX.IT'S VERY INTERESTING MY POINT IS.YOU MAY REMEMBER THEM.I SURELY DO!!!!!!

Andrew said...

Eastern WX: Thanks for the report!

Anonymous #1: Probably not.

Eastern WX: I did pick up a good inch of LES.

Mike: Thanks for mentioning that. it certainly will be interesting to see! And by the way, no one will be ripping on anyone here again. Those days are well behind us.

Aran: A couple inches are possible.

Anonymous #2: Don't shoot the messenger- I was going off the models and teleconnections. Now I am using the analogues for the forecast. If it were my decision, everyone would get 2 feet of snow.

mike paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.The three ways I see how a certain storm will affect a certain area are as follows.The PATH,PACE,and PUNCH.The path of course is where the low will track.The pace is how fast it moves.The slower the storm=more snow,the faster the storm moves=less snow.Finally the punch.The punch is how strong the storm system is.For example a vigorous storm system that threatens Ohio may begin to lose it's energy to a deeper storm complex that develops along the eastern slopes of the Appalachian mountains.Trust me this is a nightmare when this happens in my area.A forecast that may call for 6" or more of snow may go down to an1" if a deeper storm to the east takes the energy away from the low around Ohio.

Aran said...

So nothing to extreme for Valparaiso?