Tuesday, October 16, 2012

LRC Showing Snowiest Regions This Winter

The LRC pattern is giving up hints on who could get crushed this winter. But before we get into any of that, what exactly is the LRC?

The LRC, or Lezak Recurring Cycle, is an annual pattern that sets up during the fall and is present into the following spring. This pattern cycles, or repeats, every 40-60 days. Each repetition is referred to as a 'cycle'. The length of each cycle varies each year, and NO PATTERN IS THE SAME from year to year. The LRC tracks storm systems and high pressure systems, repeating them through each cycle. However, these apparati will change location slightly and change strength with each cycle of the LRC.

Let's start out this investigation by taking a look at what has happened in the nation throughout the past several weeks.

500 millibar map from September 22

500 millibar map from October 9

500 millibar map from October 14
The 500 millibar map is the best place to look for low pressure systems and high pressure systems. Low pressure systems are characterized by depressions in the lines on the map. The deeper the depression, the stronger the storm. High pressure systems are shown as an upward arcing feature. Like the previous rule, the stronger the arc, the stronger the high pressure system.

In all three pictures above, you can clearly see several storm systems on the map. However, there were strong storm systems in the Midwest and Northeast for these periods, with a few cut off lows just off the Southwest coast. During these three images' timeframes, the northern half of the country (as well as the Plains) got smashed with several inches of precipitation, with over 2 inches in some areas over the Midwest.

The new Lezak Recurring Cycle for 2012-2013 appears to be setting up, and people in the Accuweather Forums, as well as the inventor of the LRC, Gary Lezak himself, are buzzing about it. This latest blog entry by Mr. Lezak indicates that the LRC is indeed showing itself, as this quote from his blog demonstrates:

Energy coming over the Pacific Northwest coast this morning will begin diving south over the plains states tonight.  This is not necessarily the greatest sign for this year’s weather pattern, as this is the third storm to dig into this position, which strongly implies that we have a pattern setting up with a long-term long-wave trough northeast of Kansas City. I would love to see some energy digging into the western states or Rocky Mountains, but recently this has not been happening. 

You're probably thinking "So what? Why should I care about just a pattern?"

Well, the Lezak Recurring Cycle has historically helped predict who could get the most snow during the winter, as the storms typically follow their paths in past cycles. For example, if a storm were to go through the East Coast and it was in the LRC, 40-60 days later would see the same piece of energy hit the generally same area.

The presence of so many strong storms in the northern half of the nation suggests to me that the Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast are in for a quick start to winter. Keep a close eye on early December for these same pieces of energy to hit the mentioned regions...possibly with snow this time.



Anonymous said...

do think that philadelphia will get an early start to winter with snow or is it going to be focused in the great lakes and the northweat portion of the northeast

bweather said...

This is why anyone out there should never listen to winter forecast in July,Aug,Sept. Our weather is always changing and the LRC is real. You get a fairly nice dose of the
-NAO/-AO and the ballgame changes dramatically!!!! I don't believe a La Nina is in the works for this winter yet but a Warm Neutral winter is in the cards. This sign shows me a La Nina for next winter no doubt!!!!