Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Arctic Being Overwhelmed By Immense Stratospheric Warming

All layers of the stratosphere are being impacted by an incredibly large and immense sudden stratospheric warming at this time. The above animation shows 10 millibar temperatures from mid December to january 11th. You can see the current warming event originating from the Himalayas and has now propagated to the Arctic. The thing that makes this warming so incredible is just how much land it is covering, and just how intense this warming really is. According to observed temperatures like the one shown below, this event was indeed historic, breaking the daily stratosphere record temperature for a few days:

Unusually intense warming is also going on in the lower, more significant layers of the stratosphere, including the 30mb and 50mb layers respectively shown below:

If history of sudden stratospheric warmings are any testament to what could happen from these warmings, Siberia could be right in predicting a very cold February for much of the nation from above normal snow cover in the last half of the month of October 2012.



Anonymous said...

I'll take the chance of asking your opinion about how all this could affect weather in Europe. I wouldn't dare to be more specific (Greece for instance)...
For the time being most people believe that the Atlantic is too restless and cold air, although gathering over Siberia, might not find a way South. Hope this is not too off-topic.

Andrew said...

I'm not familiar with European weather patterns, so I don't think I'll be of much help here. However, cold air in general will be making its way south to lower latitudes worldwide, meaning Europe may also have a fair shot at some good cold.