Saturday, January 19, 2013

January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm

I have upgraded the title of this event from 'Potential Winter Storm' to 'Potential Significant Winter Storm'.

Image from TropicalTidbits
The last 2 GFS model forecasts and the most recent ECMWF model forecast have introduced the idea of a winter storm hitting the Northeast with significant accumulating snow.

The above image shows the GFS model forecast, valid for the afternoon of January 26th. Precipitation type, low and high pressure areas, pressure contours, and 1000-500mb thickness values are shown in the above image. You can see a strong storm system immediately offshore the New England area, producing widespread precipitation across the Northeast and even into Florida. Much of the precipitation snow in the Northeast is occurring as snow at this forecast point, and by the looks of it, this would be a Nor'easter situation of heavy accumulating snow in the region.

Image courtesy WeatherBell
The total accumulated snow up to Hour 192 shows significant snowfall accumulation from this storm, with widespread amounts exceeding 9 inches, and isolated areas exceeding the 12 inch mark. This is indeed a classic Nor'easter situation, but the question is, can this really happen? We will be seeing the polar vortex uncomfortably close to Greenland, which could hamper a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which in turn would discourage a Nor'easter. We will need to watch this potential very closely and not get too excited yet.

Andrew

2 comments:

Jeremy S. said...

This would be the biggest storm for me in my area since January 2011. Please....please come true.

Babsie said...

Please don't let this one miss central Maryland! Like it has anything to do with you, but you know what I mean!