Sunday, January 20, 2013

January 24-27 Potential Significant Winter Storm - 1/20 Evening Update

This is the current situation unfolding with the potential winter storm that would fall within the timeframe of January 24-27. I have displayed the two most reliable weather models' ESTIMATED tracks (I say estimated because I believe the ECMWF is actually a bit further south) for this storm system. There is a very messy agreement that the storm will happen, but that's where the line is drawn. While the ECMWF projects widespread accumulations, much of which falls within the blue 'Potential Accumulating Snow' area, the GFS is much more restricted on snow, with only parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast benefitting.

At the moment, out of consistency, lower cyclone track error and overall better verification in recent runs than the GFS, I'm feeling much better siding with the ECMWF than the GFS. I feel that the GFS is just too wobbly for my liking, while the ECMWF has a swath of accumulating snow down pat in a situation much more fit to happen with frigid Arctic air to the immediate north. Additionally, the ECMWF's ensemble system is in good agreement with the blue ECMWF track, greatly enhancing the credibility of such a track. On the contrary, the GFS' ensemble system is disorganized with this system and should not be taken at face value- it faces some of the same issues as the GFS model itself.

At the moment, I will side with the blue track, but I will not map out accumulations due to model disagreement that I am not comfortable deciphering for the time being.

Exciting times ahead for many in this nation!



Anonymous said...

I am very confused after seeing this map. It looks as if this system is starting to be a snow maker here in kansas before heading northeast. However the NWS has a forecast for north central kansas with no moisture in it for the next seven days, and they are actually saying temps in the 40's to near 50 by weekend.
I like your map it at least gives me some hope for rain or snow any kind of moisture would help.
By the way why these above normal temps I thought we would be seeing things to start getting colder now or is kansas not going to see much of that severe cold you were talking about

Jody Wassmer said...

Ugh, I liked the earlier runs with the low in TN :(

bjenks said...

With cold air in place over the next several days in the Ohio Valley don't you think this Low will be a little further to the south than what these models are showing. In the past all models have been sketchy with the cold air diving down. I am know Met. by any means, but following trends for the past eight years I have seen these systems cut along the edge of the cold and snow and not through them. I seee much of Indiana and some of KY getting into the snow action with a possible ICE storm for some of KY. Just my thoughts....