Above is a 4-panel graphic forecast for the morning of February 12th. We see our storm system as a deep low pressure center in the eastern Rockies, about to eject into the Plains. The strength of the system is reflected in 500 millibar vorticity values in the top left panel. Reds indicate low pressure systems, purples show high pressure. Downstream from this storm, we are seeing some building of higher pressure in the Southeast, something that typically can drive storm systems further north than south. To me, the system wants to press south based on the mid atmospheric flow, but that can't happen unless dissipation of these higher pressures occurs in the Southeast. Considering how negative frictional torque values have also shifted north in response to the subtropical jet stream's northward movement, it would seem to me this system may be a bit too far south in this model's forecast.