Monday, March 25, 2013

April 2-4 Potential Storm

There is potential for a winter storm from April 2-4.

The long range American model is projecting a strong storm system to hit the Midwest between April 2 and 4, bringing significant precipitation to the Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes and South US. The American GFS model has been projecting this storm system to hit the nation for at least a few model runs, although the strength and expanse of the precipitation varied. Taking a preliminary analysis at this forecast map, it looks more like Nebraska and southern South Dakota could achieve a significant RAINstorm (bet you thought I would say snowstorm, right?), while southern Minnesota and maybe into Wisconsin could reach the needed criteria for a big rain event. Towards the South, it seems more apparent that this would also be a rain event, possibly even a severe weather event. However, the exact dynamics in this event are very much to-be-determined. Current wind shearing forecasts during this timeframe are optimistic for at least a few stronger thunderstorms, but nothing reaching the level of intense severe weather event.

The European model is actually showing an incredibly similar situation for this event, putting the center of low pressure in what appears to be the exact same spot as the American model. The European model has this storm system just a touch weaker than the American, but the fact that their placement of the storm system matches up as well as it is is incredible enough.

The American ensemble forecasting system has the system much further to the south than these two model forecasts, and both ideas will have to be monitored in the event that this system's potential does come to fruition.


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