Discussion: The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a long range area of severe weather over the aforementioned areas. Short range model guidance shows a thunderstorm complex developing over these areas in the early morning hours of Monday. Current predictions indicate this complex will develop as a non-severe event in far eastern KY/TN, and then blossom into a rather large complex, mainly confined to Kentucky and Tennessee. Forecasts in the instability department are rather unenthusiastic with this event, bringing minimal instability into these regions. Additionally, cloud bases do not look to be low enough to produce an efficient tornado threat. It appears that the main threat will be provoked and sustained by moderately strong lower level winds and modest shear. Not looking like a major event in this case according to the most recent model guidance.