Friday, March 1, 2013

March 4-6 Potential Winter Storm

Latest model forecasts are indicating the potential for a band of heavy snowfall to set up from the Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley during the timeframe of March 4-6.

Shown above is the snowfall forecast from the American model. It shows a corridor of heavy snow extending from Montana through the Plains and into the Midwest as a weakening trend hits. Some more enhanced totals are seen in southern Indiana and Ohio before the system transfers offshore of the East Coast, which is a post for another time. The snow would definitely be heaviest in the Plains as of current thinking, and these totals could very well exceed half a foot, with some spots reporting isolated totals very close to or just over one foot.

Contrary to the current belief, this system is not an Aberta Clipper. It is a regular storm system that happened to come onshore in Canada rather than the Pacific Northwest. Considering we remain a fair time out from this situation, and models are notorious for having issues with heavy snow in narrow corridors (as is to be expected), I think it is best to not make a preliminary map and instead cautiously go with the above snowfall forecast. This is not my forecast, but it does echo where I think the snows will fall. If models can show that they are rock solid with this heavy corridor of snow in the next 24 hours, I will most likely have a map out tomorrow.


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