Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Severe Weather Risk Increases Next Few Weeks

I anticipate the risk of severe weather to increase across the South Plains in the next week or more.

Shown above is a forecast chart of 850 millibar dewpoints. In areas of elevated dewpoint values, the atmosphere is considered richer and more supportive for convection in those areas. The American model predicts a nearly constant flow of moisture from the South and into the Plains to allow for more than one shot at a severe weather event across states such as Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and more. The formation of this flow from the Gulf into the Plains may be enhanced by predictions of high pressure formation in the Plains in the medium range forecast time period. My personal expectation on this potential is we should see the beginning of severe weather season in the next 7-10 days. Granted, we have already seen a fairly active start to the severe weather season, but the official season may very well begin in the next 7-10 days if a storm system is able to intercept this ample moisture in the southern Plains.



Met said...

THose are not very high dewpoints. Not near enough for a sever outbreak. Also, best moisture flow comes from the southeast, i.e. the Gulf, not from the southwest.

Andrew said...

Fixed the typo, and while they may not be as high as are warranted for a solid severe weather outbreak, they are more than we will see in coming days.