Saturday, March 30, 2013

Summer Warmth On The Way

The latest run of a member of the European ensemble set has summertime warmth flooding the nation just 10 days from now.

The image above is from the European ensemble control run, which is a member of the ensemble set that has its parameters unchanged. As you may recall, ensemble members are forecasts from the model itself, but their starting parameters are slightly changed in one way or another. The control run does not have its parameters changed. This forecast, valid for the evening of April 8th, has a massive warm-up across much of the nation, with every state east of the Colorado Front Range (except a few select New England states) reaching full-on spring or summertime warmth.

Cities like Houston, Orlando and Atlanta would have temperatures very similar to those in Chicago, St. Louis and Detroit. The massive warm-up would not reach northern ND, MN, WI or the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, although a forecast 240 hours out is not nearly written in stone.

The unusually warm temperatures following this unusually cold start to spring would most likely be a byproduct of an intense ridge of high pressure sitting across the Great Lakes, Midwest and Plains. Latest indications are that this warmth would be wiped out a few days later as the storm system you see in the Southwest moves on through the nation, but the incredible expanse of the high pressure system means the warmth would not go down without a fight. Time will most certainly tell if this warmth comes to fruition, but this forecast certainly warms the heart of those frowning upon the cool and snowy start to spring.


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