Friday, April 26, 2013

Upper Stratosphere Becoming Agitated

Latest indications from the Climate Prediction Center are that the upper stratosphere is becoming agitated as we enter the heart of spring.

The animation shown above details the last 30 days of temperature anomalies at the 10 millibar level of the world, known as the upper stratosphere. The last month of temperature observations has revealed two bodies of above-normal temperature anomalies. The first body of warmth made an initial push to the Arctic in the Bering Sea, but after the attempt was foiled, the warmth appears to have shifted into Siberia and may be making a second attempt. The second swath of warmth also shifted east from the northern Atlantic into much of Canada. This area of warmth has been more oppressed as far as being able to push north, and it seems to be weakening in the last couple frames of the animation. Nonetheless, the uneasiness in the northern hemisphere tells me that the atmosphere is determined to shift into its summer stages, where bodies of warmth like the ones shown above are not present. Time will tell when this happens, but until it does, I suppose you can't blame the atmosphere for staying in a wintry pattern over the last several weeks.



Alejandro F. said...

And what is the forecast for the upper stratosphere in the next month?
More heat Entering the arctic? Does that mean that this summer will be colder than usual?


Ray Timmons said...

All you need to know is that a hot summer is coming! TWC says "colder" for the Great Lakes, but for some reason, they have very bad forecasting techniques. Half the time, they severely over generalize things. MOST sources call for an above average temp regime this summer, including NOAA/NWS/SPC/CPC who do the REAL forecasting. TWC and accuweather are terrible and can be labeled as "3rd party" forecasters. Those two most inaccurate corps just happen to be 2 of the very few forecasting a cold summer for the Great Lakes and surrounding areas.

Ray Timmons said...

But on the other hand, great update on this Andrew. You beat TWC and Accuweather with your updates!