Thursday, May 30, 2013

ECMWF Develops Tropical Cyclone; Gulf Coast Threatened

The ECMWF model has developed a landfalling tropical cyclone for June 9th, as an active on-land weather pattern begins to ignite the tropics.

The map above shows the 10 day forecast from the ECMWF model, with mean sea level pressure values in the black contour lines and vorticity values in colors. The tropical cyclone is observed here making landfall into eastern Louisiana, close to Mississippi. This comes as the weather pattern favors stagnant high pressure in the Central and Eastern US, leading to a favorable tropical pattern. I have been indicating that the weather pattern may favor a tropical cyclone in the first 10 days of June, and the models appear to be catching on.

This event is still ten days out and loaded with uncertainty. Due to the shaky agreement between the ECMWF and GFS model systems I am fairly certain that there is potential here. I am not willing to elaborate on who could get hit and how strong the cyclone could be; it's too far out to even make an educated guess. As of right now, the whole Gulf Coast could be affected.


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