Sunday, May 26, 2013

Tropical Discussion - Development, Landfall Possible in Mexico

Invest 92 has formed in the East Pacific, and the National Hurricane Center has identified this invest with a 40% chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours.

Satellite imagery indicates this invest is rather healthy, with multiple areas of enhanced thunderstorms to the south of Mexico. Some of these thunderstorms are even spreading onshore, and this could be a sign of where the invest will eventually end up. For now, no significant circulation is detected by satellite feed, although continued development and dissipation of thunderstorms is clearly shown. If any development is to occur, it would likely start with the southern thunderstorm complex, where storm development is most stable.

Model guidance is showing my main concern with this invest, as current projections have the tropical invest moving almost due northward into Mexico. The consensus is certainly for a landfall into Mexico, although the model spread going towards Mexico is enough so that I am not willing to formally declare a landfall is likely. I do believe, however, that there is a pretty good chance we will see cyclone development and landfall. I say cyclone development because the intensity forecast image below the tracks shows all guidance agreeing in Invest 92 strengthening into a tropical cyclone. A few models even go to bare-bones Category 1 hurricane status, but I believe we will cross that bridge when we get to it.

Tropical Cyclone Development: LIKELY
Tropical Storm: LIKELY
Hurricane: POSSIBLE
Major Hurricane: UNLIKELY
Landfall: LIKELY


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