Wednesday, June 26, 2013

Energy Moving off African Coast May Spark Tropical Interest

Two major global models are now indicating a piece of energy will move off the African coast in the next week or two that may provoke a tropical concern later on in July.

The above image shows the ECMWF model and GFS model forecasting lower level winds over the Atlantic Basin for 10 days out. Looking towards the African Coast, we see elevated values off the coast of Africa on both models. While the ECMWF model is considerably weaker with this piece of energy, it is apparent that there is interest in the long range models for the tropical wave train off of Africa to get going rather soon.

While this is a rather long range forecast, I would not doubt the development of a tropical system beginning in the next 10-14 days. We are entering the prime time for hurricane development; while it will not arrive until the fall months, summer is certainly a season that needs to be watched for hurricane development.


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